Synthetic Respondent Firm Lewsearch Calls Alaska for Sullivan, Nebraska for Osborn, and Will Grade Itself in Public

Every race called, frozen before release, with a public pass mark: an average miss of 4 points or less across all 35 races

COLUMBUS, Ohio, Nov. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Lewsearch has released its forecast for all 35 U.S. Senate races on the Nov. 3 ballot, with Democrats and the independents who caucus with them reaching a 51-seat majority. It calls a winner in every race and publishes, before the first results are reported, the rule it will be graded by.

"Most research vendors ask clients to trust their numbers. We'd rather be checked," said Jeffrey Mead, founder of Lewsearch. "All 35 of these calls are on the record before the results come in, and every miss will stay on the page next to the hits."

What Lewsearch is calling

• Senate control: Democrats and the independents who caucus with them reach 51 seats in Lewsearch's forecast.
• Alaska: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan holds his seat against Democrat Mary Peltola. Prediction markets favor Peltola.
• Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn defeats Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Prediction markets favor Ricketts.
• The seven closest races, all called: Kansas (Roger Marshall, R), Nebraska (Dan Osborn, I), Iowa (Ashley Hinson, R), Texas (James Talarico, D), Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R), Ohio (Sherrod Brown, D) and Maine (Troy Jackson, D), each within 3 points.

The full forecast, with predicted vote shares and margins for every race, is at report.lewsearch.com/issue11.

Graded in public

• Frozen in advance: The forecast was locked at noon ET on Oct. 31, before release.
• A public pass mark: Lewsearch passes if its average miss across all 35 races is 4 points or less, measured on the two-way vote share between each race's leading non-Republican candidate and the Republican. Alaska is graded on its final ranked-choice round.
• No escape hatch: Every race is called, toss-ups included, and every call counts.
• Results posted race by race: Once results are certified, Lewsearch will publish each race's outcome, its miss and the overall grade on the forecast page.

Lewsearch's earlier Senate predictions, published July 30 in Issue 3 of The Lewsearch Report, stay on the record and will be graded under their own rules.

Frequently asked questions

What does Lewsearch's 2026 Senate forecast predict?

Lewsearch's forecast, published Oct. 31, 2026, calls all 35 U.S. Senate races on the Nov. 3 ballot and gives Democrats and the independents who caucus with them 51 seats. The full forecast is at report.lewsearch.com/issue11.

Where does Lewsearch break with the prediction markets?

In Alaska, where it calls Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan over Democrat Mary Peltola, and in Nebraska, where it calls independent Dan Osborn over Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Prediction markets favor Peltola and Ricketts.

How will the forecast be graded?

Against certified results. It passes if its average miss across all 35 races is 4 points or less, measured on the two-way vote share between each race's leading non-Republican candidate and the Republican. All 35 calls count, including seven toss-ups.

What is synthetic market research?

Synthetic market research asks questions of AI-simulated respondents built to match real populations, instead of recruiting a new human panel for every question. Lewsearch's respondents are grounded in U.S. census data, and its digital twins let a company interview an audience modeled on its own customers. Teams then compare the results with evidence from real people.

How accurate is Lewsearch?

Lewsearch publishes its error rates. On its 500-question historical benchmark, its simulated respondents have a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.72 percentage points per answer, measured against published surveys, election results and official statistics. The Lewsearch Report grades every issue in public. Its record so far: 2 wins, 2 partials and 1 miss, with 6 issues awaiting a grade.

About The Lewsearch Report

The Lewsearch Report publishes forecasts before outcomes are known, then grades them in public against official results. Every issue and its grade are at report.lewsearch.com.

About Lewsearch

Lewsearch is a synthetic market research company operated by Swarmgram, Inc., an AI research company in Columbus, Ohio. Its AI-simulated audience of 650,000 Americans, grounded in U.S. census data, lets research teams test messages, concepts and survey questions within minutes, then compare the results with responses from real people. Clients can also interview an audience modeled on their own customers. Learn more at lewsearch.com.

Media contact:
Jeffrey Mead, founder, Lewsearch
jeffrey@lewsearch.com

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/c7ceb455-3fcb-4bac-9f24-b9710c17bc9b